The Demographic Collapse

How falling fertility reshapes our future

What if I tell you that the greatest reshape power of our era is not war, economic competition, technology or climate change but demographics? Birth rates have fallen significantly in a global level while populations aging rapidly. Behind those numbers lies a quiet revolution in security, economy and global power. This revolution can reshape the map for the decades to come.

Demographics Meets Geopolitics

According to newly released IMF data, global fertility has collapsed since the 1960s, from a peak of 5.3 births per woman to just 2.2 today. This dramatic decline, has significant economic, strategic and security consequences, it is not just a demographic trend.

Moreover, global population is aging, fast. Many states are now facing shrinking populations, smaller labor forces, and public systems buckling under the weight of an older society. But the real story is not just who is disappearing, it’s what this means for global power, economic survival, and the geopolitical map of the next century.

This demographic transition has been happening, and its effects are global. Many economies built on continuous growth are facing slowing down of this growth and even stagnation. And most significantly, this shift is redrawing the map of global power and influence, as hard power is changing (military readiness, innovation capacity, trade and economy).

Governments have realized the danger of demographic collapse and are trying to stabilize their domestic systems and remain competitive in a world where power is linked, at least to an extent, to population dynamics. This adaptation is crucial as it will determine the place of the countries in the global system for the years to come.

Fertility Today: The Hard Data

The global total fertility rate (TFR) nowadays stands between 2.2 to 2.3 births per woman, according to demographic aggregates (Our World in Data, 2025). This decline signals that more countries are approaching, or falling below, the population replacement threshold of 2.1 births per woman. The latest UN reports (United Nations World Population Prospects: 2024 Revision) projects that this decline will continue for the years to come and the fertility levels, globally, are expected to decline further to only 2.0 births per woman by the 2050s. Even though this decline seems small, its impact is huge as lower fertility means slower population growth, and in many states, outright population shrinkage.

Moreover, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) adds its voice to those warnings by publishing the 2024 World Economic Outlook. In this report, the IMF highlighted the aging trends in many states that are already facing population decline. According to this report, the percentage of people aged 65 and older is expected to rise from 17.3% in 2025 to 30.9% by 2050, in those countries. This aging trend is expected to transform labor markets, consumption patterns, and fiscal balances. Obviously, pension systems and healthcare infrastructures will be pushed to their limits as working-age populations decline and the tax base shrinks, as the labor force is shrinking.

According to the IMF, only Africa will be excluded, for now, from this decline. More specifically, the forecast for Africa is that the continent’s population share will rise from 19% today to 26% by 2050. Most of this growth will be concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, where fertility rates remain higher and population momentum is strong. As developed and some emerging economies struggle with stagnation and demographic drag, Africa's expanding labor force and younger age profile could position it as a central player in the global economy, if matched by the right policies and investments in education, infrastructure, and governance.

These demographic forecasts, which are backed by the IMF’s April 2024 WEO, the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, and datasets from Our World in Data, show the shift which is underway. Fertility may seem like a personal or cultural variable, but on a scale, it determines the economic and geopolitical contours of the future.